UPS was downgraded at Deutsche Bank on Monday morning. Here’s what the move means for mutual fund investors.
Inside the Downgrade
Deutsche Bank has cut its rating on United Parcel Service (UPS) from “Buy” to “Hold” and has maintained its $116 price target.
Deutsche Bank made the following comments: “We have downgraded shares of UPS to Hold (from Buy) as we now see a more balanced risk/reward with the stock appreciating 9.5% since earnings (vs. a 2.6% increase in the S&P 500). The outperformance has been driven by multiple expansion (up 9.2% vs. the S&P 500 which has expanded 3.0%) as investors have looked out to DIM pricing tailwinds and a better peak season. We believe much of the good news is already in the shares with the stock trading at 19.4x our 2015 EPS estimate (vs. its one-year trailing average Consensus NTM P/E multiple of 18.3x). Accordingly, we have downgraded shares of UPS to Hold.”
Downgraded on Valuation
We agree with Deutsche Bank’s UPS downgrade based on valuation, as the stock price sits at a historically high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. The stock may also be faced with seasonality risks following the holiday shopping season.
The company’s dividend yield is attractive at 2.41%, but it has under-performed compared to its faster growth competitor FedEx (FDX), which is up 22% YTD.
Mutual Funds to Watch
Investors interested in UPS may also consider the following mutual funds as an alternative to investing directly in the stock. The funds below currently hold the largest stakes in UPS.
|VTSMX||Vanguard Total Stock Market Index||1.29%|
|VFINX||Vanguard 500 Index||0.82%|
The Bottom Line
The funds above offer investors a stake in UPS, while remaining diversified. Investors interested in UPS may also be interested in FedEx (FDX).
Shares of UPS are up 5% YTD.