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The takeaway from these findings is that, under our progressive tax structure, the “goal of minimizing the marginal tax rates on TDA withdrawals can be accomplished by withdrawing funds from the TDA each year so long as these withdrawals are taxed at a low marginal rate and then making additional withdrawals from the taxable account until it’s exhausted. Once the taxable account has been exhausted, the retiree should withdraw funds from the TDA each year so long as these funds are taxed at a low marginal rate and then make additional withdrawals from the TEA.”
The authors also note that a retiree may be in an unusually low tax bracket due to large tax-deductible expenses, such as medical costs. Their recommendation is: “In those years, the retiree will likely be in a low, if not zero, tax bracket. Although forecasting this circumstance presents a financial-planning problem (because no one knows for certain whether they will have such high expense years), it is nevertheless desirable to try to save some TDA balances for this nontrivial possibility.”
The authors also offer a Roth-conversion strategy that can extend longevity. Each year, the retiree completes a Roth conversion from the TDA to the TEA in an amount that pushes the marginal tax rate to 15 percent. They estimate that this strategy increases the portfolio’s longevity by about one year.
However, for even greater tax efficiency, the authors suggest a strategy that calls for creating two Roth-conversion accounts of equal amounts. At the end of the year, the retiree re-characterizes the account with the lower valuation. Taxes are due only on the one conversion that wasn’t re-characterized.
Based on their return assumptions, the authors estimated that this would extend the longevity of the portfolio about two-thirds of a year. Given a sufficient level of funds, even more than two conversion accounts could be set up. All the accounts except for the one with the highest valuation could be re-characterized at the end of the year.
Finally, the authors demonstrate that the impact a tax-efficient approach can have on portfolio longevity is greater when returns are higher, when volatility is higher and when the returns sequences are more favorable (higher returns in the early years).
In summary, the authors show that the most tax-efficient withdrawal strategy can add as much as six years to portfolio longevity, as least relative to the most inefficient strategy. That’s quite an improvement, considering that there are virtually no costs to implementing the most tax-efficient approach
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