Probabilities I
Name
As of 03/31/2023Price
Aum/Mkt Cap
YIELD
Exp Ratio
Watchlist
Vitals
YTD Return
9.1%
1 yr return
-10.1%
3 Yr Avg Return
1.5%
5 Yr Avg Return
-1.3%
Net Assets
$25.7 M
Holdings in Top 10
75.1%
52 WEEK LOW AND HIGH
Expenses
OPERATING FEES
Expense Ratio 2.18%
SALES FEES
Front Load N/A
Deferred Load N/A
TRADING FEES
Turnover N/A
Redemption Fee N/A
Min Investment
Standard (Taxable)
$2,500
IRA
N/A
Fund Classification
Fund Type
Open End Mutual Fund
Name
As of 03/31/2023Price
Aum/Mkt Cap
YIELD
Exp Ratio
Watchlist
PROTX - Profile
Distributions
- YTD Total Return 9.1%
- 3 Yr Annualized Total Return 1.5%
- 5 Yr Annualized Total Return -1.3%
- Capital Gain Distribution Frequency Annually
- Net Income Ratio -1.36%
- Dividend Yield 0.0%
- Dividend Distribution Frequency Annually
Fund Details
-
Legal NameProbabilities Fund
-
Fund Family NameProbabilities Fund
-
Inception DateDec 12, 2013
-
Shares OutstandingN/A
-
Share ClassInst
-
CurrencyUSD
-
Domiciled CountryUnited States
-
ManagerJoseph Childrey
Fund Description
The Fund utilizes a fund of funds structure to invest primarily in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including inverse ETFs and leveraged ETFs. ETFs that seek to track the performance of broad-based U.S. equity indices, principally the Standard & Poors 500 (S&P 500) as well as mid-cap, small-cap and total market indexes are referred to as Index ETFs. The Fund may also invest in ETFs that employ leverage (Leveraged Index ETFs) in an effort to deliver, on a daily basis, up to three times the performance of the S&P 500 or ETFs which seek returns which are the inverse of a U.S. equity index, (Inverse Index ETFs). In addition, the Fund may hold cash, money market instruments, or other cash equivalents (collectively, Cash Instruments).
The Funds adviser uses an active trading strategy based on a proprietary, rules-based methodology to determine the Funds allocation among Index ETFs, Leveraged Index ETFs, Inverse Index ETFs and Cash Instruments that seeks to take advantage of long-term trends in the market. The Fund typically invests in either ETFs or Cash Instruments depending on the advisers assessment of the market. When the adviser believes that conditions are favorable for investment in equities, the Fund will invest in ETFs. During periods that the adviser believes will offer the highest probability of capital appreciation, the Fund will invest primarily in Leveraged ETFs; otherwise, the Fund will invest primarily in Index ETFs. When the adviser believes that market conditions are unfavorable for equities, the Fund will invest in Inverse Index ETFs or Cash Instruments.
The Funds investment program will emphasize active management of the Funds investments, with an emphasis on capturing profits on short-term movements. This strategy will result in the Fund taking frequent trading positions. Consequently, the Funds portfolio turnover and brokerage commission expenses may significantly exceed those of most investment funds of comparable size.
PROTX - Performance
Return Ranking - Trailing
Period | PROTX Return | Category Return Low | Category Return High | Rank in Category (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
YTD | 9.1% | -11.7% | 17.0% | 10.36% |
1 Yr | -10.1% | -27.2% | 22.0% | 57.07% |
3 Yr | 1.5%* | -19.9% | 23.4% | 90.12% |
5 Yr | -1.3%* | -13.4% | 13.1% | 75.16% |
10 Yr | N/A* | -7.3% | 11.5% | N/A |
* Annualized
Return Ranking - Calendar
Period | PROTX Return | Category Return Low | Category Return High | Rank in Category (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | -23.9% | -54.0% | 40.9% | 90.27% |
2022 | 1.2% | -22.5% | 24.1% | 63.28% |
2021 | -2.9% | -19.4% | 24.1% | 85.29% |
2020 | 7.0% | -8.4% | 12.9% | 4.94% |
2019 | -3.3% | -14.0% | 7.1% | 86.27% |
Total Return Ranking - Trailing
Period | PROTX Return | Category Return Low | Category Return High | Rank in Category (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
YTD | 9.1% | -25.0% | 17.0% | 10.88% |
1 Yr | -10.1% | -27.2% | 22.0% | 57.07% |
3 Yr | 1.5%* | -19.9% | 23.4% | 90.12% |
5 Yr | -1.3%* | -13.2% | 14.1% | 76.43% |
10 Yr | N/A* | -6.9% | 11.5% | N/A |
* Annualized
Total Return Ranking - Calendar
Period | PROTX Return | Category Return Low | Category Return High | Rank in Category (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | -23.9% | -54.0% | 40.9% | 90.27% |
2022 | 1.2% | -22.5% | 24.1% | 63.28% |
2021 | -2.9% | -19.4% | 24.1% | 85.29% |
2020 | 7.0% | -8.4% | 12.9% | 4.94% |
2019 | -3.3% | -14.0% | 15.9% | 86.93% |
NAV & Total Return History
PROTX - Holdings
Concentration Analysis
PROTX | Category Low | Category High | PROTX % Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Net Assets | 25.7 M | 818 K | 5.18 B | 78.87% |
Number of Holdings | 8 | 3 | 2670 | 85.48% |
Net Assets in Top 10 | 21.5 M | -175 M | 1.1 B | 52.15% |
Weighting of Top 10 | 75.08% | 1.5% | 100.0% | 14.65% |
Top 10 Holdings
Asset Allocation
Weighting | Return Low | Return High | PROTX % Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Stocks | 115.38% | -2.90% | 119.13% | 1.60% |
Bonds | 0.50% | -48.31% | 152.17% | 21.93% |
Preferred Stocks | 0.00% | 0.00% | 7.60% | 14.05% |
Other | 0.00% | -35.22% | 39.56% | 37.84% |
Convertible Bonds | 0.00% | -0.02% | 4.68% | 14.05% |
Cash | -15.89% | -67.46% | 106.99% | 96.76% |
Stock Sector Breakdown
Weighting | Return Low | Return High | PROTX % Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Technology | 30.62% | 0.00% | 43.24% | 3.64% |
Consumer Cyclical | 13.98% | 0.00% | 88.83% | 21.21% |
Healthcare | 13.32% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 67.88% |
Financial Services | 11.40% | 0.00% | 83.83% | 61.82% |
Communication Services | 9.99% | 0.00% | 32.32% | 14.55% |
Industrials | 8.86% | 0.00% | 31.93% | 60.00% |
Consumer Defense | 6.30% | 0.00% | 33.38% | 46.67% |
Energy | 2.28% | 0.00% | 32.57% | 72.12% |
Utilities | 1.25% | 0.00% | 21.71% | 58.79% |
Basic Materials | 1.14% | 0.00% | 28.58% | 76.97% |
Real Estate | 0.86% | 0.00% | 10.93% | 59.39% |
Stock Geographic Breakdown
Weighting | Return Low | Return High | PROTX % Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|
US | 114.14% | -24.26% | 116.70% | 1.08% |
Non US | 1.24% | -43.01% | 97.78% | 61.62% |
Bond Sector Breakdown
Weighting | Return Low | Return High | PROTX % Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cash & Equivalents | 99.20% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 64.67% |
Government | 0.80% | 0.00% | 88.51% | 21.74% |
Derivative | 0.00% | 0.00% | 52.12% | 17.93% |
Securitized | 0.00% | 0.00% | 13.59% | 14.67% |
Corporate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 23.37% |
Municipal | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.01% | 11.96% |
Bond Geographic Breakdown
Weighting | Return Low | Return High | PROTX % Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|
US | 0.50% | -48.31% | 63.44% | 21.62% |
Non US | 0.00% | -0.33% | 22.00% | 14.05% |
PROTX - Expenses
Operational Fees
PROTX Fees (% of AUM) | Category Return Low | Category Return High | Rank in Category (%) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Expense Ratio | 2.18% | 0.40% | 11.46% | 37.44% |
Management Fee | 1.35% | 0.00% | 2.50% | 68.72% |
12b-1 Fee | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.00% | 6.48% |
Administrative Fee | N/A | 0.03% | 1.54% | 31.25% |
Sales Fees
PROTX Fees (% of AUM) | Category Return Low | Category Return High | Rank in Category (%) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Front Load | N/A | 2.50% | 5.75% | N/A |
Deferred Load | N/A | 1.00% | 4.00% | N/A |
Trading Fees
PROTX Fees (% of AUM) | Category Return Low | Category Return High | Rank in Category (%) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Max Redemption Fee | N/A | 0.50% | 2.00% | N/A |
Related Fees
Turnover provides investors a proxy for the trading fees incurred by mutual fund managers who frequently adjust position allocations. Higher turnover means higher trading fees.
PROTX Fees (% of AUM) | Category Return Low | Category Return High | Rank in Category (%) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Turnover | N/A | 0.00% | 479.00% | 71.34% |
PROTX - Distributions
Dividend Yield Analysis
PROTX | Category Low | Category High | PROTX % Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend Yield | 0.00% | 0.00% | 11.11% | 31.28% |
Dividend Distribution Analysis
PROTX | Category Low | Category High | Category Mod | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend Distribution Frequency | Annually | Annually | Monthly | Annually |
Net Income Ratio Analysis
PROTX | Category Low | Category High | PROTX % Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Net Income Ratio | -1.36% | -3.33% | 2.88% | 73.30% |
Capital Gain Distribution Analysis
PROTX | Category Low | Category High | Capital Mode | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Capital Gain Distribution Frequency | Annually | Annually | Annually | Annually |
PROTX - Fund Manager Analysis
Managers
Joseph Childrey
Start Date
Tenure
Tenure Rank
Dec 12, 2013
8.47
8.5%
Joseph B. Childrey, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Probabilities Fund Management, LLC. Mr. Childrey was a consultant for Stone & Youngberg, LLC, a firm specializing in public finance and fixed income investments, from 2005 to 2006; a Senior Vice President for Wells Fargo Investments from 2000 to 2005; a Senior Vice President and Branch Manager for A.G. Edwards & Sons., Inc. from 1990 to 2000; and an Investment Executive with PaineWebber from 1988 to 1990. Mr. Childrey began managing the predecessor fund, an LP, on Jan 2, 2008. He received a Bachelor of Arts degree from Western Maryland College, with a major in sociology.
Tenure Analysis
Category Low | Category High | Category Average | Category Mode |
---|---|---|---|
0.07 | 23.55 | 5.99 | 7.93 |