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I also discussed the importance of integrating a well-constructed investment plan into a comprehensive estate, tax and risk management (insurance of all types) plan. And finally, I discussed the need for maintaining the discipline required to ignore all market and economic forecasts made in the financial media and by Wall Street, because all-to-often they lead investors to abandon their long-term plans.
For those interested in this subject, I highly recommend the books “Expert Political Judgment” by Philip Tetlock and “The Fortune Sellers” by William Sherden. In support of the academic findings on forecasts, I provided several quotations such as these:
I also added that I had personally heard Warren Buffett state that he had not even looked at a macroeconomic forecast in at least 25 years.
I have also learned this important lesson. No matter how much we would like to believe otherwise, there’s only one person who knows where the economy and the market are headed — and if I ask him, at least in this lifetime, I won’t get an answer. And in the next one, it won’t matter anyway.
And, in conclusion, he also offered this: “We have long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good. Even now, Charlie (Munger) and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children.”
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