- The COVID-19 pandemic has continued to spread exponentially in the world, with the number of confirmed cases closing in on two million worldwide. A quarter of these cases are just in the U.S., which has experienced a brutal expansion to more than half-a-million cases from almost nothing in the span of just two weeks.
- Russia and the Saudi Arabia-led OPEC reached an agreement to cut oil supplies by 10 million barrels per day, but doubts are still lingering about whether that is nearly enough to offset the demand shock stemming from COVID-19. The cuts were not enough to trigger a sustained rally in oil prices.
- Crude oil inventories in the U.S. rose 15.2 million barrels in week of April 8 after rising by 13.8 million barrels in the prior week.
- In the United States, the number of unemployment claims jumped dramatically over the past three weeks: 3.2 million in the March 26 week, 6.6 million in the April 2 week, and 6.8 million in the April 9 week.
- The U.S. lost 701,000 jobs in March after adding 275,000 during the prior month. Analysts had expected a modest loss of 100,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate surged from 3.8% to 4.4%.
- U.S. inflation dropped the most since 2015 due to falling gasoline prices. Consumer prices declined 0.4% in March compared to the prior month and are up 1.5% over the past 12 months, below the Federal Reserve’s mandate. Meanwhile, core inflation is up 2.1% over the past year.
- A string of final figures for services purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) in Europe declined to record lows and well below the depth reached during the financial crisis in 2009. Europe-wide services PMI declined to 26.4 in March. Anything above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 represents contraction.
- European inflation declined to 0.7% in March from 1.2% in the previous month, thanks to lower oil prices and cheaper travel.
- On the bright side, Chinese manufacturing PMI rebounded strongly in March into expansion territory at 52. The lowest level it reached during the current crisis was in February when it posted a PMI of 35.7.
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U.S. Broad Indices
- All U.S. equity indices rallied strongly as many traders believe the previous market selloff was overblown.
- Vanguard’s mid-cap index fund (VMCIX) gained 10.55% over the past two weeks, after posting the worst performance in the prior two-week period.
- Meanwhile, Wilshire’s large-cap equity index fund (WFIVX) was the worst performer with a rise of 9.57%, slightly underperforming other indices in the pack.
Fixed Income
- Fixed income assets again posted strong returns over the past two weeks with only one segment recording losses.
- Vanguard’s high yield bond fund (VWEHX) was the best performer from the pack with a rise of 4.45%, after losing more than 5% in the prior two weeks.
- At the same time, Vanguard’s municipal bonds fund (VWITX) shed 0.42% of its value, the only faller from the bunch.
Major Sectors
- All sectors were up with none of the indices showing gains below 8%.
- Vanguard’s materials sector fund (VMIAX) skyrocketed 15.8% over the past two weeks.
- The weakest performance was posted by Vanguard’s industrials sector fund (VINAX), which rose a little more than 8%.
Foreign Equities
- The picture was not as rosy in foreign equities.
- American Fund’s global equities fund (CWGIX) was the best performer, in part because half of its assets are in U.S. equities.
- T.Rowe Price’s Japanese equities fund (PRJPX) was the worst performer with an advance of just 2.12%, after being the best performer over the prior two weeks.
Alternatives
- All alternative assets were in the red.
- After posting the worst losses in the pack in the prior two weeks, the Vanguard’s real estate sector proxy (VGSLX) is now the best performer with an advance of 12.80%.
- Meanwhile, PIMCO’s emerging markets currency and short-term investments fund(PLMIX) is up by just 1%.
The Bottom Line
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Fund returns data is reported for the period between March 27 and April 9.