- The COVID-19 pandemic isn’t showing any signs of abating in the U.S., with the highest number of nearly 75,000 daily cases of infections reached on July 17. The U.S. remains the hardest-hit country in the world, with states of Texas, Arizona and Florida registering the largest number of total cases.
- U.S. markets have proven resilient in light of the great economic damage caused by the pandemic, while global economies are also seeming to recover strongly. However, the key test is going to be in the fall, when governments around the world withdraw fiscal help for businesses and their employees.
- Unemployment claims have continued to drop in the U.S., but they remain at a historically elevated level. Around 2.6 million people filed for unemployment for the first time during the two weeks ending July 16.
- U.K. economic output advanced a lower-than-expected 1.8% in May, after crashing more than 20% in April during the lockdown. Analysts had expected a GDP advance of 5.5%.
- Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment is running strong, showing advances for the fourth month in a row. In March, the sentiment fell deeply into negative territory but recovered strongly the following month.
- U.S. inflation increased by 0.6% in June, thanks to rises in gasoline and food prices, ending three consecutive months of declines. In the 12 months through June, inflation climbed by 0.6%, well below the Federal Reserve’s target. The low annual inflation is likely to give more ammunition to the Fed to keep continuing its monetary stimulus. Excluding food, gas and other volatile items, the CPI rose 1.2% year-over-year.
- The European Central Bank decided to maintain its emergency COVID-19 bond-buying program at the current levels, while leaving interest rates unchanged. The ECB released two programs totaling 1.35 trillion euros to help the eurozone ease the negative economic effects of the coronavirus.
- The Bank of Japan cut its forecasts for economic growth, citing the coronavirus pandemic. However, it kept its monetary stimulus in place. The bank now expects a GDP decline of 4.7% in 2020, with prices down by 0.5%, but it put its faith in a rapid recovery in both 2021 and 2022.
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U.S. Broad Indices
- Markets were up this week.
- Vanguard’s Mid-Cap Index Fund (VMCIX) is up 2.5% over the past two weeks, by far the best performance from the pack. The fund has Digital Realty Trust, DexCom and Lululemon Athletica among its largest holdings.
- The worst performer is Vanguard’s S&P 500 Index Fund (VFIAX), which gained just 1.5%.
Fixed Income
- Fixed income assets also posted gains.
- Vanguard’s Investment-Grade Bonds Fund (VWESX) is by far the best performer, with a rise of 2.7%.
- At the other end of the spectrum is Vanguard’s Short-Term Treasuries Fund (VFISX), which was flat for the past two weeks.
Major Sectors
- Sectors recorded mixed performance.
- Vanguard’s Materials Sector Fund (VMIAX) was surprisingly the best-performing fund, climbing 4.75%.
- At the same time, Vanguard’s Real Estate Sector Fund (VGSLX) is the worst performer from the pack, with a decline of 1.72%.
Foreign Equities
- Foreign equities were mixed.
- India Equities Fund (MINDX) is again the best-performing fund from the group, up by 2.1% for the past two weeks. Yet, India is also now the world’s third most-affected market by the coronavirus.
- Meanwhile, Fidelity’s Latin America Fund(FLATX) was down 0.41%, representing the worst performance from the bunch.
Alternatives
- Alternative assets were all up with one exception.
- PIMCO’s Commodity Strategy Fund (PCRIX) posted the best gains from the pack these past two weeks, up by 1%.
- As reported above, Vanguard’s Real Estate Fund (VGSLX) was the only fund to post losses, down 1.7%.
The Bottom Line
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Funds return data is for the period between July 3 and July 17.