- Daily new coronavirus cases have trended down over the past two weeks, from a peak of around 940,000 at the end of April to just below 700,000 on May 14. The numbers have declined as a host of countries continued their successful vaccination efforts, including the U.S. and the U.K. However, rising coronavirus cases in India due to the emergence of a new COVID-19 variant has raised new concerns.
- The U.S. consumer price index advanced 4.2% in April year-over-year largely due to higher energy prices, raising concerns that inflation could get out of control. The headline figure is well above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. However, Fed officials dismissed inflation concerns as transitory due to base effects. Indeed, core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, was up 3%.
- European core consumer price index rose 0.8% in April year-over-year, a sign that inflation is still in check in Europe. This gives the European Central Bank plenty of leeway to stimulate the economy.
- The Eurozone is officially in recession, declining for the second consecutive quarter. The Eurozone economy fell 0.6% in the March quarter, following a decline of 0.7% in the prior quarter.
- The U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index declined from 64.7 to 60.7 in April, but remains in expansion territory, showing that the U.S. manufacturing industry is experiencing a strong boom, partly due to rising demand.
- The Bank of England has maintained interest rates at a record low of 0.1% and the monetary policy committee voted to keep intact the 895-billion-pound quantitative easing program, although one member dissented, arguing he wanted a slightly smaller stimulus program. The Bank of England forecasted the U.K. economy will grow by 7.25% this year, upgrading its estimates from 5% previously.
- The U.S. economy added 266,000 jobs in April, missing analyst estimates of 990,000, and down from 770,000 in March. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 6.1% from 6% previously. On the bright side, average hourly earnings surged by 0.7%, beating expectations of flat growth. In March, earnings declined by 0.1%.
- U.S. retail sales growth was flat in April, compared with a 10.7% advance in the prior month. Core retail sales, which excludes automobiles, was down 0.8% versus 9% growth in the prior month.
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U.S. Broad Indices
- U.S. equities have all fallen this week, as investors took some money off the table.
- Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares (VFIAX) has declined the least from the pack, down 0.10%.
- Meanwhile Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund Institutional Shares (VSCIX) is the worst performer, with a drop of 1.3%.
Fixed Income
- Fixed income assets showed mixed results.
- Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTAPX) is up 0.69%, as investors sought protection from inflation.
- At the other end of the spectrum is Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares (VWESX), with a fall of 0.65%.
Major Sectors
- Sectors have also posted mixed performance.
- Vanguard Materials Index Fund Admiral Shares (VMIAX) is up 6.10% as high demand for many manufacturing products has driven up commodity prices.
- Meanwhile T. Rowe Price Communications & Technology Fund Investor Class (PRMTX) is the poorest performer, with a fall of 5.16%.
Foreign Equities
- Foreign equities were rather mixed.
- Vanguard European Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares (VEUSX) is up 2.8%, as investors moved some of the money on the continent, where shares are believed to be undervalued.
- Fidelity® China Region Fund (FHKCH) is down nearly 6%, representing the worst performance from the pack.
Alternatives
- Alternative assets were mixed.
- PIMCO CommodityRealReturn Strategy Fund Institutional Class (PCRIX) rose 2.8%, the best performer from the pack for the second consecutive week.
- Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund Admiral Shares (VGSLX ) is the weakest performer, with a decline of 2%.
The Bottom Line
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Fund returns data are for the two-week period between April 30, 2021, to May 14, 2021.