Stocks moved higher last week as Goldilocks economic data continued to support a future rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI clocked in at 48.7 in May, below expectations, and continued to show a contraction of activity. However, the services PMI rebounded higher, surpassing analysts’ views and moving once again into expansion mode. The labor economy was also bullish this week, with the job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) report showing still-plentiful jobs available, while the economy added more than 272,000 jobs in May – the most in five months and well above expectations. Investors took the news in stride, with the FedWatch tool showing a continued pause in rate hikes from the central bank.
Next week, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve and the latest CPI report. Investors will be looking to get more insights from the central bank as it prepares to announce its decision on interest rates for June next week. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes will also be in focus, as investors try to figure out the future direction of interest rates. Consumer prices increased 0.3% month-over-month in April 2024, slightly less than 0.4% in each of the previous two months. Analysts expect the trend to continue with just a 0.1% increase forecast for May, keeping the yearly pace at 3.4%. Any decline in the rate of inflation may give the Federal Reserve enough ammo to start lowering rates in the future. However, most analysts expect the central bank to once again kick the can, pausing and keeping rates at 5.5% next week. Investors will be keen to hear Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech for any clues as to when the pauses may end and rate cuts begin.
Given this economic backdrop, let us see how this impacts the performance of various investment strategies.
Investment Strategy Scorecard
Overall, major U.S. stock indices continued to post positive results for the rolling month.
Silver strategies continued to post positive returns for the rolling month. Meanwhile, some mid-cap and cannabis strategies continued to struggle.
U.S Equity Strategies
Among U.S. equities, several growth strategies continued to post solid performances for the rolling month.
Winning
- HCM Tactical Growth Fund (HCMDX), up 6.96%
- Fidelity® Growth Company Fund (FGCKX), up 6.41%
- Fidelity® Nasdaq Composite Index® ETF (ONEQ), up 5.21%
- iShares Core S&P U.S. Growth ETF (IUSG), up 4.96%
Losing
- iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth ETF (IJK), down -1.99%
- First Trust US Equity Opportunities ETF (FPX), down -3.56%
- Champlain Mid Cap Fund (CIPIX), down -3.71%
- Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund (BCSIX), down -4.02%
Dividend Strategies
Several dividend growth strategies continued to rally over the rolling month.
Winning
- HCM Dividend Sector Plus Fund (HCMNX), up 4.82%
- Fidelity® Dividend ETF for Rising Rates (FDRR), up 4.24%
- BNY Mellon Equity Income Fund (DQIRX), up 3.85%
- Fidelity® High Dividend ETF (FDVV), up 3.8%
Losing
- DWS CROCI Equity Dividend Fd (KDHSX), down -0.42%
- WisdomTree U.S. SmallCap Dividend Fund (DES), down -1.82%
- Principal Small-MidCap Dividend Income Fund (PMDIX), down -1.96%
- ProShares S&P MidCap 400 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (REGL), down -3.4%
U.S. Fixed Income Strategies
In US fixed income, long-duration debt strategies continued to post positive results for the rolling month.
Winning
- Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund (VEDIX), up 4.37%
- PIMCO Extended Duration Fund (PEDPX), up 4.23%
- iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), up 2.72%
- PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index Exchange-Traded Fund (LTPZ), up 2.65%
Losing
- Thornburg Limited Term Municipal Fund (LTMFX), down -0.52%
- T. Rowe Price Dynamic Global Bond Fund (TRDZX), down -1.16%
- ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF), down -2.4%
- iShares Floating Rate Bond ETF (FLOT), down -2.52%
Foreign Equity Strategies
Among foreign equities, Switzerland and Sweden equity strategies posted solid performances, while Mexican and Brazilian equity strategies struggled.
Winning
- iShares MSCI Switzerland ETF (EWL), up 8.05%
- iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD), up 6.31%
- Franklin International Growth Fund (FNGZX), up 5.07%
- T. Rowe Price European Stock Fund (PRESX), up 4.97%
Losing
- Lord Abbett Developing Growth Fund (LADVX), down -1.6%
- Capital Group Emerging Markets Growth Fund, Inc. (EMGEX), down -1.61%
- iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), down -8.46%
- iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW), down -9.5%
Foreign Fixed Income Strategies
Several foreign debt strategies continued to post marginal gains for the rolling month.
Winning
- iShares International Treasury Bond ETF (IGOV), up 0.67%
- John Hancock Funds Emerging Markets Debt Fund (JEMIX), up 0.53%
- Fidelity Advisor® New Markets Income Fund (FNMIX), up 0.4%
- iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB), up 0.31%
Losing
- SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets Local Bond ETF (EBND), down -0.59%
- Templeton Global Bond Fund (TGBAX), down -0.71%
- VanEck J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (EMLC), down -0.74%
- American Funds Emerging Markets Bond Fund (EBNFX), down -0.77%
Alternatives
Among alternatives, gold strategies continued to post strong results over the rolling month, while cannabis and natural resource-focused strategies struggled.
Winning
- Fidelity® Select Gold Portfolio (FSAGX), up 4.92%
- Fidelity® Contrafund® Fund (FCNKX), up 4.59%
- Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA), up 4.2%
- Virtus InfraCap U.S. Preferred Stock ETF (PFFA), up 2.45%
Losing
- BlackRock Event Driven Equity Fund (BILPX), down -0.59%
- BlackRock Tactical Opportunities Fund (PCBAX), down -1.14%
- SPDR® S&P Global Natural Resources ETF (GNR), down -3.09%
- ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ), down -10.62%
Sectors
Among the sectors and industries, silver and semiconductor strategies posted strong performance, while cannabis, healthcare, and energy strategies struggled.
Winning
- Aberdeen Standard Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR), up 14.61%
- iShares Silver Trust (SLV), up 14.49%
- Fidelity Advisor® Semiconductors Fund (FIKGX), up 12.44%
- Fidelity® Select Semiconductors Portfolio (FSELX), up 12.26%
Losing
- Fidelity® Select Software & IT Services Portfolio (FSCSX), down -4.12%
- Eventide Healthcare & Life Sciences Fund (ETAHX), down -4.6%
- VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX), down -7.2%
- AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS), down -14.17%
Methodology
Every week, MutualFunds.com provides a snapshot of the performance of some key mutual funds and ETFs to highlight the trending investment strategies across different sectors, geographic regions, asset classes, and themes. MutualFunds.com uses a proprietary system to scan through thousands of relevant mutual funds and ETFs. Fund performance data is calculated for the trailing one month, based on the change in NAV.
Here is a summary of the different strategies covered in this article:
- U.S. equity strategies typically cover different equity investing styles (growth/value/blend) and market capitalizations (small/mid/large).
- Dividend strategies focus on generating income via different equity routes (high yield/dividend growth/foreign dividend/quality dividend)
- U.S. fixed income strategies focus on debt securities issued by U.S. entities and can cover different types of debt (corporate/municipal/high-yield/investment-grade/government/asset-backed) and maturity profiles (short/medium/long).
- Foreign equity strategies cover equity strategies applied to non-U.S. markets based on the level of economic growth (emerging/developed), regions (Asia/Europe/Africa), and market capitalizations (small/mid/large).
- Foreign fixed-income strategies focus on debt securities issued outside the U.S. markets and can cover different regions (Asia/Europe/Africa) and regions based on the level of economic development (emerging/developed).
- Alternative strategies cover non-traditional investments (currencies, hedge funds strategies, derivatives, volatility-based), real estate, and commodities.
- Sector strategies cover dedicated exposure to various sectors of the U.S. economy including technology, healthcare, financial, and industrial among others.