- There are more than 8 million COVID-19 infections worldwide as of June 15, with the U.S. registering the highest number of cases at 2.1 million. The number of daily cases worldwide continues to increase, although much of the advance is now led by other countries than just a few months ago. Brazil has now posted the second-highest number of infections, followed by Russia, India and the U.K.
- The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged near zero and said they will likely remain at this level for at least the next two years. The central bank does not expect a quick recovery and predicted the economy will decline by 6.5% in 2020, increase by 5% in 2021, and 3.5% in 2022. Meanwhile, it said the unemployment rate will be at 9.3% by the end of 2020.
- The European Central Bank pledged to buy another 600 billion euros of bonds in a bid to jumpstart the eurozone economy hit by the coronavirus pandemic. As such, the central bank’s total easing program reached $1.4 trillion. If it finishes the current bond-buying plan, the bank will hold 4 trillion euros in assets on its balance sheet, a third of eurozone’s gross domestic product. The new quantitative easing comes as the bank downwardly revised its outlook for the eurozone economy, saying exceptional uncertainty has led to a significant decline in consumer spending and investment.
- The U.S. economy added 2.5 million jobs in May after losing 20 million jobs in April, as many businesses started hiring again. As a result, the unemployment rate fell from 16% to 13.3%. Average hourly earnings declined 1% after posting a rise of 4.7% in the prior month.
- The OPEC countries and Russia agreed to keep production cuts at 9.7 million barrels per day, or 10% of the pre-COVID-19 world demand until the end of July. Meanwhile, a panel will review the oil market and advise the OPEC+ group on how to proceed. The agreement has helped stabilize oil prices, but its fragility has been weighing on the market.
- Germany’s industrial production fell 17.9% in May month-over-month, after declining 8.9% in the prior month, a signal that the industry is suffering from weak demand even though the economy has reopened.
- The U.S. inflation dropped almost to zero in the 12 months through May, as the coronavirus has taken a toll on aggregate demand and oil prices declined. The consumer price index (CPI) was up 0.1% in the 12 months through May, the smallest increase since 2015. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy items, was up 1.2% year-over-year.
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U.S. Broad Indices
- Markets traded largely sideways, after rallying for a few weeks.
- Vanguard’s small-cap fund (VSCIX) is the best performer along with the Wilshire 5000 index fund (WFIVX), both up marginally by 0.18%.
- Meanwhile, Vanguard’s large-cap fund (VFIAX) is the worst performer with a small decline of 0.01%.
Fixed Income
- Fixed income assets were all slightly up, with one exception.
- Vanguard’s long-term investment-grade bonds fund (VWESX) gained 0.95% over the past two weeks, as some investors plowed money into safe assets.
- At the same time, Vanguard’s short-term Treasuries fund (VFISX) was flat, becoming the worst performer from the pack.
Major Sectors
- Sectors posted mixed performance.
- The Vanguard’s healthcare sector fund (VGHCX) was the worst performer with a decline of 5.2%.
- Meanwhile, the Vanguard’s real estate sector fund (VGSLX) recovered strongly, posting a gain of 4.17%, as investors perceived many retail and office REITs as undervalued in light of the reopening of the economy.
Foreign Equities
- Foreign equities were all up with one exception.
- Fidelity’s Latin America fund (FLATX) surged by 12%, as some investors embraced riskier assets. The region was by far the best performer from the pack.
- T. Rowe Price’s Japan fund (PRJPX) suffered a retreat over the past two weeks, declining by 0.57%.
Alternatives
- Alternative assets were all up.
- As expected, Vanguard’s real estate sector proxy (VGSLX) gained the most from the pack, up 4.17%.
- Meanwhile, PIMCO’s commodity strategy fund (PCRIX) was the worst performer from the pack, moving up by a marginal 0.43%.
The Bottom Line
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Fund returns data is reported for the period between May 29 and June 12.