- There are now more than 9 million coronavirus cases globally, with more than half of these constituting closed cases. The number of daily cases in the U.S. continues to be high, and on June 19 reached a peak not seen since the beginning of May.
- Bank of Japan has maintained its monetary policy unchanged but increased its lending program to businesses to more than $1 trillion. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he did not expect interest rates to rise in the coming years, as the economy recovers from the COVID-19 lockdown. The coronavirus lending program provides zero interest loans to banks if they boost lending to businesses.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled confidence in the recovery from the COVID-19 lockdown but said the U.S. is still a long way from normality. Powell said some economic indicators have stabilized amid a modest rebound, but employment remains far below its pre-pandemic level.
- U.S. retail sales have jumped 17.7% in May as consumers returned to stores in droves after the COVID-19 forced them to stay at home. The increase follows two consecutive monthly drops of 8.7% and 16.4%.
- U.K. inflation continues to fall as consumer demand for certain products and services, such as travel, has dried up. The U.K. consumer price index is now up 0.5% in May year-over-year, a low not seen since 2016, just before the Brexit vote. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food, energy and alcohol items, is up 1.2%.
- Bank of England announced a new 100 billion pounds stimulus package to provide additional support to businesses in the restaurant and hotel sectors that could lay off employees when the government furlough scheme ends this fall. However, the central bank struck a more upbeat tone about the recovery, saying it now expected a contraction of 20% in the first half of the year, compared with 27% previously.
- The eurozone, meanwhile, experienced severe deflationary pressures. Year-over-year, CPI is up just 0.1% in May, down from 0.3% in the prior month. Core CPI is up a more encouraging 0.9%.
- A host of European manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indices (PMI) have recovered strongly in May. Europe-wide manufacturing PMI rose from 39.4 to 46.9, while services PMI advanced from 30.5 to 47.3. While Germany’s indices were in contraction territory, France was in expansion mode.
- Britain’s PMIs also provided reasons for optimism. Manufacturing PMI rose from 40.7 to 50.1, while the services PMI came in at 47, up from 29.
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U.S. Broad Indices
- Markets were down in the past two weeks, as the recovery reached an end.
- Vanguard’s small-cap index fund (VSCIX) is the worst performer from the pack, with a fall of 4.5%, after being the best performer last time.
Fixed Income
- Fixed income assets were all up, with one exception.
- Vanguard’s high-yield corporate bond fund (VWEHX) is the only loser from the pack, down 0.87%.
- Meanwhile, Vanguard’s investment-grade bonds fund (VWESX) is the best performer with an advance of 2.6%.
Major Sectors
- All sectors were down, with two exceptions.
- T. Rowe’s communication sector fund (PRMTX) was up an impressive 3.7%, boosted in part by the strong performance of Amazon, which makes up 15% of the index.
- Vanguard’s energy fund (VGENX) is the worst performer from the bunch, with a fall of nearly 8%.
Foreign Equities
- Foreign equities were all down, but China bucked the trend.
- Fidelity’s Chinese equities fund (FHKCX) rose by 2.5% over the past two weeks, being the only riser from the pack.
- Meanwhile, volatile Latin America equities fund from Fidelity (FLATX) showed a poor performance, down nearly 4.5%.
Alternatives
- Alternative assets were all down.
- Vanguard’s Real estate fund (VGSLX) lost more than 4%, after gaining a similar amount last time.
- Meanwhile, Cohen & Steers’ preferred securities fund (CPXIX) lost just 0.6%, representing the best performance from the pack.
The Bottom Line
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