- Daily new coronavirus cases have continued their upward ascent as many countries are reopening their economies without having vaccinated all the people. The number of daily deaths, however, has continued to trend down. The U.S. still has the highest number of cases registered since the outset of the pandemic, followed by India.
- European inflation has declined from 2% to 1.9%, close to the European Central Bank’s target. However, the ECB has indicated that it will continue its accommodative monetary policy even when inflation overshoots its goal, despite expected opposition from some governing council members. Core consumer price gauge, which excludes volatile food, energy, and tobacco items, is up just 0.9%.
- Federal Reserve minutes have shown that policymakers are discussing a potential tapering of the central bank’s asset purchase program, although some members called for patience. The central bank members agreed that inflation has been rising faster than expected, but still hold the view this is due to transitory effects.
- The OPEC and Russia oil cartel has been engaging in intense negotiations over potential increases to oil supply. However, it appears that progress has been slow and it remains hard to foresee whether an agreement will be reached. The Saudi Arabia-led OPEC and Russia previously agreed to cut 10 million barrels per day of oil supply, a target that has been eased to nearly 6 million now.
- The U.S. economy added 850,000 jobs in June, beating expectations of 725,000 and better than the prior month’s figure of 583,000. The U.S. unemployment rate, meanwhile, rose from 5.8% to 5.9% as more people entered the job market. Average hourly earnings increase by 0.3%, in line with expectations.
- Unemployment claims have continued to drop, in a further sign of the job market’s recovery. For the two weeks ended July 1, a little more than 700,000 claims were made, down from more than 800,000 in the prior two weeks.
- Europe’s ZEW Economic sentiment continued to drop this month, after reaching a 20-year high in May. The index declined from 81.3 in June to 61.2 in July, remaining in an area indicating expansion.
- U.S. services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped from 64 to 60.1 in July, but remains in expansion territory.
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U.S. Broad Indices
- All U.S. equities have posted gains these past two weeks, except small-cap equities.
- Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares (VFIAX) rose 1.79% for the week, representing the best performance from the pack.
- Meanwhile, Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund Institutional Shares (VSCIX) was the worst performer and the only loser, down 1.19%.
Fixed Income
- Fixed income assets have shown mixed performance.
- Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares (VWESX) is the best performer from the pack with an advance of 2%.
- Meanwhile, Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTAPX) posted the worst performance by far and is the only asset that lost value, down 0.53%.
Major Sectors
- Sectors were mostly up.
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund Admiral Shares (VITAX) surged 3.65% for the past two weeks, the best performer.
- Meanwhile, Vanguard Energy Fund Investor Shares (VGENX) was down nearly 2%, largely due to OPEC and Russia failing to agree on oil supplies and the ensuing decline in crude oil prices.
Foreign Equities
- Foreign equities have shown mixed performance.
- Fidelity® China Region Fund (FHKCH) was the worst performer with a decline of 4.68%.
- At the same time, Matthews India Fund Investor Class (MINDX) was the only gainer, climbing 0.44%.
Alternatives
- Alternative assets were mixed.
- Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund Admiral Shares (VGSLX) is up more than 2%, which is the best performance from the bunch.
- PIMCO Emerging Markets Currency and Short-Term Investments Fund Institutional Class (PLMIX) lost 1.48%, the only asset to post losses.
The Bottom Line
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Fund returns data are for the two-week period between June 25, 2021, to July 9, 2021.